All writers

Neil Irwin

www.axios.com
30
articles (90 days)

Recent articles

Two words that worry global central bankers the most
Around the world, what were once solid lines dividing the responsibilities of those in charge of fiscal policy and monetary policy are being challenged or redrawn.The big picture: If elected govern...
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Fed's Warsh under pressure to clarify message in highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech
Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh made clear four weeks ago that he wants to use his speech at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to take on big, lofty ideas, as op...
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Fed governor Lisa Cook: "No legitimate basis for removal" on Trump mortgage claims
Lawyers for Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook have submitted their case for why she cannot legally be fired, as President Trump seeks new avenues for dismissing the Biden appointee for cause.The b...
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Retail sales slump in July
Data: Census Bureau; Chart: Neil Irwin/AxiosAmerican consumers have powered the economy forward this year. In July, they took a breather.Why it matters: While the underlying trend in consumer deman...
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Consumer sentiment dips, especially among Republicans
Data: University of Michigan; Note: August 2026 number is preliminary; Chart: Neil Irwin/AxiosPublic opinion about the economy appears to be souring further this month, per the preliminary release ...
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Quantifying the AI boom crowding-out effect
When investment on the scale of the current AI boom occurs, it inevitably has to come at the expense of something. All the resources devoted to building data centers and developing AI models would ...
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How Kevin Warsh is rewiring the Fed
Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh is attempting a high-wire act: He's trying to fundamentally rethink the central bank's approach to guiding the economy, while also using its standard policy too...
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Trump may get a big, new tariff authority
A legal cat-and-mouse game has played out over whether the president can use various obscure, untested provisions to impose tariffs. Now, Congress appears on track to give him a big, new — and expl...
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The message beneath the yen intervention
The U.S. and Japanese governments have acted together to try to prop up the value of the yen on global currency markets. The way they did it contains a clue about U.S. goals — and has some worrying...
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Fed leaves rates steady, with internal dissent
The Federal Reserve left its interest rate target unchanged Wednesday amid significant internal dissent from officials who preferred to raise rates.The big picture: The central bank elected not to ...
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Why AI makes central banking tougher
Central bankers, as a rule, try to maintain stable prices, a strong job market and a sound financial system. The AI boom is a complexifier on all three fronts.The big picture: AI is blurring the us...
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AI is only "part" of high U.S. productivity growth, says Stripe economist
AI appears to improve workers' efficiency in a number of sectors. The U.S. has experienced a surge in economy-wide productivity in the last couple of years. But the former isn't necessarily driving...
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What would a rate hike signal about the new Fed chief's MO?
The Federal Reserve typically telegraphs its interest rate moves in advance, then follows through. This week will provide the clearest evidence yet on whether chairman Kevin Warsh is ending the era...
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Investors want a bigger reward for lending money
Data: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. Treasury Department; Chart: Courtenay Brown/AxiosThe relentless run-up in Treasury yields reflects the globe's new economic reality: It takes a much ri...
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A quieter Fed chief means others narrate the story
Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh testified before Congress over two days last week, totaling more than five hours. Yet it was comments from several of his colleagues that gave the clearest pict...
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PPI data lowers market odds of interest rate increases this year
Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh is testifying on Capitol Hill for the second day Wednesday, this time before the Senate Banking Committee.The combination of a few comments he made in Tuesday's...
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Fed's Warsh stays mum on rate plans, pledges price stability
Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh will tell Congress Tuesday that the central bank is determined to restore price stability, but again offered little guidance as to whether it may need to raise ...
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Outsiders with major chops lead Fed task forces
Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh has created five task forces to rethink the central bank's policymaking process. They are likely to bring outside-the-box ideas combined with intellectual chops...
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Fed saw "upside risks" to inflation, disagreed on rate path
Federal Reserve officials saw a wide range of scenarios for how the economy and inflation will evolve at their meeting last month, leaving the central bank's policy committee divided over the path ...
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Inflation measurement tweaks make for sunnier data
Changes to the methodology underneath the Federal Reserve's go-to inflation measure are on track to make the numbers look a couple of ticks better later this year.Why it matters: The changes are en...
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No World Cup jobs bump evident in June data
With the U.S. hosting the World Cup, there have been plenty of anecdotes about a booming tourism economy in host cities — Scotland fans drinking Boston bars out of beer, for example.But no World Cu...
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Top central bankers align on rewriting the policy playbook
It's not just an American thing. Central bankers from other top Western democracies also believe that they should communicate less about where policy is going.Why it matters: There was striking ali...
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SCOTUS punts Fed independence question to future courts
On the surface, Monday's Supreme Court ruling that keeps Lisa Cook in place as a Federal Reserve governor for now was a win for believers that the central bank works best when insulated from the da...
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Nobody's sure where the Federal Reserve is heading
Predicting what the Federal Reserve will do next has become an exercise in trying to game out the tactical instincts of a new chairman who isn't giving the world much to work with.Why it matters: W...
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Why Americans hate the "good" economy
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Neil Irwin/AxiosThe big-picture indicators of the U.S. economy — GDP, unemployment and so on — are doing fine while public opinion on economic conditions is...
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Kevin Warsh's Fed starts to take shape
Less than four weeks after being sworn in as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh left no doubt that the way the central bank shapes its policies and communicates is now going to be very di...
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Fed leaves rates steady in Warsh's first meeting
The Federal Reserve left its target interest rate unchanged in Kevin Warsh's first meeting as its chairman, alongside new projections showing that many top officials now anticipate raising interest...
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All eyes on Warsh at new Fed chairman's first policy meeting
As Kevin Warsh leads his first policy meeting as Federal Reserve chairman this week, he is not getting the luxury of starting the job in "easy" mode.The big picture: He faces a renewed surge of inf...
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The white-collar jobs contradiction that isn't
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Note: Core white-collar is the sum of employment in financial activities, information, and professional and business services sectors; Chart: Neil Irwin/AxiosThe m...
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With Fed set to meet next week, December's rate cut now looks questionable
Six months ago, Federal Reserve officials were deeply divided over whether to cut interest rates for a third consecutive meeting. The rate cutters won the day, but the data since then has pointed t...
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