Neil Irwin

The U.S. economy started 2026 in a state of excellent balance: strong growth, a solid job market and subdued inflation. Just don't look too closely.The big picture: The key headline numbers in rece...

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Note: "White-collar core" includes finance, insurance, information, and professional and business services; Chart: Axios VisualsUsually, when the economy grows, so...

Data: U.S. Commerce Department; Chart: Jacque Schrag/AxiosThe United States is experiencing an investment boom from AI and the infrastructure that makes it possible — but much of those economic gai...

The last few years have exposed some of the fractures in a world currency system dominated by the U.S. dollar. China's leaders see an opportunity — but achieving it will likely prove easier said th...

Massive fiscal deficits as far as the eye can see. The prospect of easy monetary policy even amid elevated inflation. America's role in the world is in flux. Something has to give, and that somethi...

President Trump really, really wants lower interest rates, and the Federal Reserve and other tools of state power have tried to deliver them. The bond market isn't cooperating.Why it matters: Longe...

The United States faces a fork in the road in which it can either embrace dynamic capitalism or tolerate stagnation, the leader of America's biggest business group will say today in a major speech....

The Federal Reserve's modus operandi through years of attacks from President Trump has been straightforward: Head down, do your job, don't get sucked into counterattacks.Fed chair Jerome Powell tos...

Some bells you can't unring. Some doors are one-way. The United States is about to find out whether the attempted criminal prosecution of its central banker is one of those.The big picture: The new...

Federal prosecutors are investigating Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell over the central bank's multi-billion-dollar project to renovate its headquarters, according to a report late on Sunday tha...

The Trump administration and the Federal Reserve are both counting on a 2025 productivity boom continuing through 2026 and fueling a continued growth surge.There are two key risks: One is that it d...

Tariff drama and tax cuts! AI spending and AI-spurred job losses! New Federal Reserve leadership! It is on track to be a big year across all the key policy areas of interest to economy-watchers.The...

The U.S. economy was beaten and battered in 2025, and powered ahead despite it all.The big picture: The question for 2026 is whether the underlying sources of weakness that are already evident will...

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year Wednesday, amid significant internal dissent and signs that further rate cuts next year are likely to be limited.Why it matters: ...

Look for a rate cut this week. Just don't count on more anytime soon.The big picture: That is the likely outcome of a two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting that concludes Wednesday. It follows an ...

For all the headlines about an AI-driven jobpocalypse, the evidence from November points to a labor market that has been weak this autumn, but far from collapsing.The big picture: Job growth looks ...

For decades, people have fretted about the financial sustainability of America's bedrock retirement income program. Now, Social Security's precarious fiscal state is an issue for the here and now.H...